Aurora Borealis Forecast

Aurora forecast: northern lights outlook for the next 3 nights

This northern lights forecast turns NOAA's 3-day Kp forecast into how far south the aurora may be visible each night in the US. For a yes/no answer at your exact location tonight, use the aurora borealis forecast tool.

Peak Kp 5.7 (G2)

Likely: Fairbanks, AK; Anchorage, AK

Low on the horizon: Seattle, WA; Spokane, WA; Missoula, MT; Bismarck, ND; Fargo, ND; Duluth, MN; Minneapolis, MN; Marquette, MI; Milwaukee, WI; Buffalo, NY; Burlington, VT; Portland, ME

Peak Kp 4.0

Likely: Fairbanks, AK

Low on the horizon: Anchorage, AK

Peak Kp 4.0

Likely: Fairbanks, AK

Low on the horizon: Anchorage, AK

059G1 stormNowOct 1Oct 2Oct 3Oct 4Oct 5Oct 6Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9Oct 10Oct 11
Kp forecast values
Kp forecast by 3-hour bin
TimeKpKind
0.3observed
0.3observed
0.7observed
1.0observed
1.0observed
1.3observed
1.3observed
2.0observed
1.0observed
1.0observed
0.3observed
0.7observed
0.7observed
0.3observed
0.7observed
1.3observed
2.3observed
2.7observed
2.7observed
2.0observed
1.7observed
0.7observed
0.3observed
1.0observed
3.0observed
3.3observed
4.3observed
5.0observed
4.7observed
4.3observed
5.7observed
4.7observed
4.0observed
5.3observed
2.3observed
3.3observed
2.7observed
3.7observed
3.7observed
4.0observed
3.0observed
3.0observed
2.3observed
2.7observed
2.7observed
1.7observed
2.0observed
2.3observed
1.0observed
1.3observed
1.0observed
0.7observed
1.0observed
2.7observed
2.3observed
1.0observed
1.0observed
1.7observed
1.0observed
2.0observed
2.0observed
1.3observed
1.7estimated
1.7estimated
1.7predicted
5.0predicted
5.7predicted
5.0predicted
4.7predicted
4.0predicted
4.0predicted
3.3predicted
4.0predicted
3.7predicted
3.0predicted
3.0predicted
2.7predicted
2.3predicted
2.3predicted
2.7predicted
4.0predicted

NOAA aurora forecast map (next ~30–90 minutes)

NOAA OVATION aurora probability map for the Northern Hemisphere

Image: NOAA SWPC OVATION model

Space weather watches and warnings

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Product A30F

Full text
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 283
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 06 1633 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted 
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 07:  None (Below G1)   Oct 08:  None (Below G1)   Oct 09:  G2 (Moderate)   
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Comment: G1 to G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 06 Oct.


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Product K04W

Full text
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5428
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 06 0343 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5427
Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0155 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 06 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Product K04W

Full text
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5427
Issue Time: 2026 Oct 05 2111 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5426
Valid From: 2026 Oct 05 0155 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2026 Oct 06 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space weather data from NOAA, updated . Refreshed every 5 minutes.